When President Trump announced in July that he planned to impose a 50% tariff on all goods from Brazil — on top of the existing 10% import duty, it collided with a market already under strain. Brazil supplies nearly 30% of America’s coffee, and the challenge arrived just as Arabica coffee futures climbed to $4.41/lb, the highest price on record, as droughts and erratic rainfall hammered crops in Brazil and Vietnam.
But in a surprise pivot, the Financial Times reported on November 21 that Trump lifted the tariffs on select Brazilian agricultural products, including coffee, to reduce food inflation.
Americans aren’t quitting coffee, just cafés
Instead of cutting back, Americans are changing where they drink. A report by Toast found that hot coffee prices rose year-over-year in 41 states, reaching a national median of $3.52 in August 2025. Cold brew now averages $5.47 nationwide — and packaged retail coffee saw its fastest monthly price jump in almost 30 years, per the U.S. Consumer Price Index.
Coffee remains a daily ritual for 66% of U.S. adults, who drink nearly three cups a day. And the majority of that consumption now happens at home: 82% drink mostly at home.
With café prices rising faster than groceries, the cost advantage might just be moving to home brewing. NCDT reported that Grocery stores remain the top source for at-home coffee purchases (40%), followed by big-box stores (29%) and online sellers (14%).
Rising prices have collided with another trend: a growing desire to recreate café culture in the kitchen. According to St Pierre Bakery’s Kayleigh Swift, the pandemic pushed people toward small “premium” rituals at home. Social media then turned those rituals into the “home café” aesthetics, including appealing visuals of brioche, croissants, and latte art. In consonance, Better Homes & Gardens says that coffee is now “shaping homes” and influencing décor.
With café prices soaring in 2025, most coffee drinkers now brew at home. Smart coffee machines with remote control and personalized settings have accelerated that shift and companies like Breville are benefitting more than ever.
Breville’s Big Year
Breville is riding the wave. The company posted a 14.6% jump in net profit to $135.9M for FY25, with revenue up 10.9% to $1.70B, largely thanks to coffee equipment. To soften tariff impacts, Breville stocked U.S. inventory ahead of the election and is now moving nearly all U.S.-bound manufacturing out of China by Christmas.
Its high-end machines are drawing great buzz. For Bon Appétit, Alaina Chou praised the Breville Oracle Jet, arguing that a $2,000 machine “is a worthwhile investment," adding that "You’ll likely be making drinks that outshine the $6 lattes you buy in coffee shops, and the machine can pay for itself in under a year.” The company has also introduced its highest-priced product ever — the Oracle Dual Boiler, retailing for $2,999.95 in the U.S., with 15 preset drinks, from flat whites to iced lattes to espresso martinis.
Tariffs and climate shocks have made 2025 a volatile year for coffee but instead of cutting back, Americans are doubling down at home. And companies like Breville are turning that shift into their biggest opportunity yet.