The American housing market has been mired in a strange limbo for the last few years: prices keep climbing, but buyers keep disappearing. U.S. housing sales in April, existing home sales saw a slight bump of 0.2% to an annualized pace of 4.02 million units, settling below the historical norm of 5.2 million. It wasn’t any better in March in the sales department which dropped 3.6% month-over-month that translates to 3.98 million units.

Mortgage rates remain an anchor on housing activity, keeping affordability stretched in the market. Following a prolonged period of 6.5% in 2014, the average 30-year mortgage surpassed 7% this year. This is a painful jump inflicted on homeowners who were accustomed to rates below 4% during the pandemic-era housing boom and now have little incentive to spare. 

The defining feature of today’s market has been the disconnect between rising prices and collapsing transactions. Existing home sales have now fallen from 6.1 million in 2021 to just 4.0 million in 2026 year-to-date, while new home sales remain stagnant at 0.6 million.

High supply, zero buy 

For the first time in years, something unprecedented is happening in the form of sellers outnumbering buyers across much of the country. According to an estimate by Redfin, there were 46.5% more Americans selling than looking to buy in April, but it would be remiss not to mention that the gap has decreased from a peak of 48.9% in December last year.

Some Sun Belt cities are going through a heavy imbalance in the housing market. Miami now has 137% more sellers than buyers, followed closely by Nashville at 125%. And the affordability crunch remains brutal with the median U.S. home price hitting a staggering record of $407,500 in 2024 only to elevate further to $417,700 this April. This marks the 34th straight month of annual price increases.

But not everything is bad, inventory is improving slowly, just not fast enough this year. The U.S. ended April with 1.47 million unsold homes, up 5.8% from March yet it’s still far from the roughly 2 million homes typically available before the pandemic. So, until supply meaningfully catches up, America’s housing market may stay frozen between sellers who won’t edge and buyers who simply can’t.

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