When Americans reach for a packet of imported spaghetti in early 2026, they may find it costs nearly twice as much as last year or isn’t on the shelves at all. Starting 1 January 2026, the U.S. is expected to impose anti-dumping duties of nearly 92% on pasta imported from Italy, stacked on top of the existing 15% tariff on EU goods. If finalized, that means total duties could climb to 107%.
The proposal, published by the Commerce Department came following a probe by the U.S. Government that alleged several Italian pasta makers including La Molisana and Pastificio Lucio Garofalo had been selling pasta below U.S. market prices. The Commerce Department reviewed sales from July 2023 to June 2024 and concluded that several companies “failed to provide the requested information”. This triggered punitive tariffs not only for Garofalo and La Molisana, but for nearly a dozen other major producers, including Barilla and Rummo. The duties will even apply retroactively to 5 September 2025, meaning importers must pay backdated tariffs on pasta that has already shipped.
The Italian government and the European Commission have since lodged formal appeals, while speculation grows that the timing and severity of the duties may threaten supply and affordability.
What happens to the pasta aisle
Market Analysts warn that If the duty goes into effect, the impact on shoppers will be immediate. Phil Lempert told CBS “You’re going to walk into the pasta aisle and you’re going to see it half empty”. Some Italian producers may simply stop exporting altogether; others may raise prices steeply. The problem is that domestic manufacturing isn’t enough to fill the gap. And this isn’t just any category at risk; Italian food as a cuisine has been woven into American eating habits for more than a century and Pasta is a household staple for most Americans. According to BBM Magazine, 86% of Americans eat pasta at least once a week; one-third eat it up to three times weekly. Statista also shows that 54% of Americans say they eat pasta regularly. The annual revenue in the U.S. pasta market stands at $9.73bn in 2025, growing at 7.96% CAGR through 2030. The appeal isn’t surprising: pasta is cheap, filling, and universally liked. A one-pound package costs about $1.45, meaning a family of four can eat pasta with tomato sauce and cheese for roughly the same price as a $5.69 fast-food hamburger.
The Commerce Department stresses the rate is still preliminary and will be reviewed before January. But unless something changes, America’s long love affair with Italian pasta will be a lot more expensive and a lot harder to find.