U.S. Workers Maybe Pushed To The Edge With Promotion Rates Going Down The Flush

For many U.S. workers, the promise of career momentum and financial progression is fading because it’s taking too long to move up the ladder. And it’s not just the promotions that are cooling but the salary bump which usually comes after it is slumping too. 40% of employees didn’t receive a raise at all in the past year, even though for those who did, the average increase was just 3.6%, down sharply from 6.2% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023.  

Beyond base pay workers are feeling the day-to-day strain of rising costs: 55% of the cohort struggle with financial strain, up from 52% in 2024. Bonuses once the key upside of compensation are shrinking and slowly becoming a thing of the past. A payroll analysis shows that less than 40% of workers received any bonus in December 2024, down from 44% in 2021, and the median payout fell about 4% which translates to $1,786.  

According to Gusto payroll insights, the overall promotion rate was at just 10.27% in May of 2025, down from a peak of 14.48% in May 2022. Considering the fact that this was during the tight post-pandemic labor market, this signals a notable slowdown in internal career progression. 

According to Bankrate’s 2025 Jobs & Pay Report, just 57% of workers received a pay increase in the past year, while only 13% found a better-paying job. Perceptions are hardening 62% say their income hasn’t kept up with inflation and 42% lacking confidence in future wage gains. Even planned salary growth isn’t lifting spirits as employers are targeting a 3.5% salary budget increase in 2026, down 0.1% from 2025.   

At the same time, 83% of employers are favoring horizontal salary increases for all staff, instead of paying a premium for specialized skills or critical roles. Looking ahead, employers are thinking of promoting fewer employees in 2026 about 9% of their workforce. This number has stumbled down from 10% in 2025, with promotion-linked pay increases averaging 8.7% when they do occur. 

America’s labor market is cooling after years of tight competition. As employers shift toward cautious budgeting, workers are finding that upward mobility is now more tentative. Promotions are becoming a scarcer currency, and in many firms they’re being rationed in ways that reinforce the very stagnation that made mid-decade labor markets feel so favorable.